Abstract
In league games, Takeuchi and Fujino reported a method for estimating each team’s strength by the Bradley-Terry( BT) model from the results of games. The similar manner was also applied to estimate parameters denoting attack and defense capabilities with respect to each
volleyball team’s rotations. In the analysis using the BT model, a computer program on the basis of a repetition algorithm was indispensable to estimate parameters.
Instead of such the algorithm, Shimazu proposed another simple estimation method called "Shimazu model", which is derived from the ratio of the number of success plays against the number of all attack plays or all defense plays. Afterwards it found that the parameters estimated by the BT model and Shimazu model are not always compatible.
This paper examined the difference between the two models. As the results, it is reported that the BT model is a general model which includes Shimazu model. If the rotations constitute a single stream, parameters estimated by both models are same. Further, the estimation of the probability that a team acquires a set is reported by computer simulation with applying parameters obtained by BT model.