Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)
Online ISSN : 2185-6648
ISSN-L : 2185-6648
50% REDUCTION IN GLOBAL GHG EMISSION BY 2050 AND ITS IMPLICATION
Shinichiro FUJIMORIToshihiko MASUIYuzuru MATSUOKA
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2011 Volume 67 Issue 6 Pages II_243-II_254

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Abstract
 To prevent the global temperature increase by two degrees, global greenhouse gas emission in 2050 should be cut by half relative to its 1990 level. This study shows following three things by using multi regions and sectors recursive dynamic type computable general equilibrium model. One is the feasibility of that global emission target. The others are the counter measures and the impact on the macro economy, if that target were feasible. In addition, the scenarios with and without international emission trading are implemented and the effect of the trading is analyzed. As a result, that target can be achieved. The marginal abatement cost is 750$/tCO2-eq in 2050. Energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage technologies are the main players as counter measures. If the emission trading is available freely, GDP loss is 4.5% globally in 2050. Otherwise, the loss is increased to 6.1%. The emission trading mechanism is also one of the important measures.
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© 2011 Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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