In Mongolia, the natural disaster ‘Dzud’ occurs from winter to spring by complex factors, e.g., snow, storms, low temperatures, and lack of vegetation.
The objective of this study is to analyze the causal relationship between livestock mortality numbers and the complex factors of Dzud.
Surveys were conducted in Dundgobi Prefecture, the most affected area of Mongolia due to Dzud between the winter of 2009 and the spring of 2010.
Data collected include herders' perception of factors causing livestock loss in Dzud, livestock numbers of each household before and after the Dzud, and coping behavior and properties of 148 livestock households selected at random after being classified by livestock numbers.
Analytical methods were factor analysis, correlation analysis and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM).
The study newly reveals two points.
First, the causal relationship and severity between livestock mortality numbers and the complex factors of Dzud became clear. A trigger of livestock loss is storms. The result of this study will contribute to effective policy making of central and local government for countermeasures of Dzud.
Second, the quantitative and empirical effects of the coping behavior, ‘Otor’, the moving of livestock to unusual pasture lands during a disaster, became clear: it mitigated livestock losses. Mobility of herders and livestock is the most effective way of mitigating the adverse effects of natural disasters in Mongolia. The result will contribute to discussions on mobility and modernization for future policy development in arid rangelands.
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