Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu
Online ISSN : 1882-7187
Print ISSN : 0289-7806
ISSN-L : 0289-7806
ESTIMATION OF FIRST PASSAGE PROBABILITIES BY PSEUDO ANALYTICAL METHOD
Masaru HOSHIYAOsamu MARUYAMA
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2002 Volume 2002 Issue 717 Pages 65-75

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Abstract
A pseudo analytical method for time-dependent system reliability analysis of nonlinear stochastic structural dynamics is investigated. This method is a class of linearization approaches that linearize approximately a nonlinear state vector equation to a discrete Gaussian and Markovian state vector equation, and the optimal state vector and covariances at times k and k+1 are estimated by the Kalman Filter algorithm with a set of numerically obtained response data. In this way, the probability of performance may be evaluated. Finally, a numerical example of a nonlinear structural system is demonstrated in order to examine the efficiency of the method.
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© by Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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