JSAI Technical Report, Type 2 SIG
Online ISSN : 2436-5556
Analysis of the relationship between news reports and commodity futures prices; through the examples of corn, soy bean and wheat
Takema ITOAiko SUGEHiroshi TAKAHASHI
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RESEARCH REPORT / TECHNICAL REPORT FREE ACCESS

2019 Volume 2019 Issue BI-011 Pages 12-

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Abstract

News reports can be one of the main factors that influence commodity futures prices. In thispaper, we conducted analysis on the relationship between news reports and commodity futures. Firstly, wedeveloped a fluctuation index of the futures prices on a daily basis, through event study. Next wevectorized the news report data and analyzed their relationships with the futures prices. In this analysis,we used the multivariate autoregressive model to examine the possibilities of forecasting commodityfutures prices by using the news report index. We also analyzed the relationship between the news indexdeveloped in this paper and the stock prices of enterprises related with commodity futures.

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